Smart Cities Dive 2023 Outlook

Jan. 1 sometimes marks a fresh fiscal year or a newly inaugurated mayor, but otherwise, the page doesn’t magically turn for municipal leaders after Dec. 31.

They still need reliable and cost-effective city services. Challenges around crime and insufficient housing supply persist. And they keep working toward cleaner, more connected and equitable transportation systems and more vibrant downtown economies.

It remains to be seen which buzzy innovations could see meaningful advancement or uptake in 2023 as cities continue to be living labs for new policies and technologies. A sense of opportunity for the coming year stems in part from federal resources that state and local governments have long advocated for and are now closer to reaching their intended targets. 

Smart Cities Dive’s reporters and editors looked at some of the economic and policy forces expected to shape the landscape for city decisions and innovation in 2023.

Economic headwinds are likely to further affect transportation and mobility

Public transit agencies from Washington, D.C., to San Francisco are facing major budget challenges, partly due to changing commuter habits in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Ideas for boosting revenue or ridership have ranged from fare increases to cracking down on fare evasion to giving city residents a monthly transit stipend.

Micromobility operators have celebrated some ridership gains following pandemic lows, but it’s now coming off a year of sputtering growth. Some industry executives have pointed to recession fears, inflation, a lack of venture capital funding, and tightening or inconsistent regulations for the setbacks, which included layoffs, market exits and other business changes. If the U.S. steers clear of a recession in 2023 and the Fed were to cut interest rates, then lower borrowing costs could make it easier for scooter and bike-share service providers to raise funds to expand their offerings.

As for drivers, they purchased more than 807,000 electric vehicles in the U.S. last year, 5.8% of all vehicles sold, up from 3.2% in 2021. EVs are winning over more affluent buyers, but they’re also attracting younger consumers. With the extension of the federal $7,500 tax credit, more EV models and the rollout of the national EV charging network, more affordable options could sway additional consumers, experts say. And while the early hype over self-driving cars has been tempered by safety concerns and the challenges of technological development, advances in artificial intelligence, faster semiconductors and vehicle connectivity could open the door to more and safer autonomous vehicles in the next few years, according to the electronics engineers behind these technologies.

Cities continue to rethink the design of downtowns and streets

Cities are experimenting with strategies to return vibrancy to downtown public spaces and reinvigorate retail as ongoing remote and hybrid work continue to dampen foot traffic. Boston recently announced it would use American Rescue Plan Act funds to help small businesses open storefronts in vacant downtown spaces, for example. 

Ideas for adaptive reuse, like turning vacant offices into housing, have gotten buzz in some areas but proved challenging to actualize. Some cities are adding more teeth to that idea, however. A New York City task force has shared recommendations on changes to state laws and city zoning requirements to support adaptive reuse. And the District of Columbia’s mayor kicked off the year with a goal to add 15,000 residents downtown in the next five years by converting office space into residential housing.

Another pandemic-driven trend was experimenting with closing off streets to vehicle traffic. Cities, including New York, have built evidence around the impacts of open streets programs that could influence their role in city life and design going forward.

Recent infusions of federal funds will begin to make an impact

Local government advocates spent the past few years pushing for cities’ interests as major federal investment packages made their way through Congress. They are now poised to reap the benefits as more money is disbursed.

Some funds from the American Rescue Plan Act have yet to be distributed. Recent ideas for spending the remaining funds have ranged from electrifying housing and buildings to paying off residents’ medical debt. Advocates also recently celebrated federal provisions that solidify additional flexibility in how communities can use ARPA’s coronavirus state and local fiscal recovery funds.

As for 2021’s $1 trillion infrastructure package, this year will likely see construction starts for charging stations funded by the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure formula program, while the Federal Railroad Administration is poised to begin reviewing and advancing proposals for Amtrak intercity rail corridors.

With new EV tax credits outlined in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act coming online, cities will need to prepare for a future with more electric vehicles. There are also new tax breaks for induction stoves and heat pumps to decarbonize homes. City and climate groups and the White House are seeking to help local governments understand forthcoming opportunities from the legislation.

Local governments are innovating policy approaches to cut emissions, spur housing availability and more

Local governments can be hotbeds of policy innovation in cases where state or federal level traction is slower. Take building decarbonization: A wave of municipalities have pursued bans or incentives to keep natural gas out of new buildings, along with revisions to building codes and performance standards to curb emissions. At the end of 2022, the Biden administration announced a similar performance standard for federal buildings.

In housing policy, cities are removing barriers to building new homes. Many cities and states are altering restrictive zoning and land-use policies, such as single-family zoning regulations and bans on accessory dwelling units. Los Angeles also announced recently that it would speed up the process of getting affordable housing development projects approved. Other cities throughout the U.S. have passed ballot measures that collectively unlock billions in new funding to produce more affordable homes. 

Another policy area gaining steam is the removal of parking minimums to address the nationwide housing shortage, fight climate change and make communities more pedestrian-friendly. California recently abolished minimum parking requirements for new real estate development projects near public transit.

In 2022, cities continued to grapple with optimizing streets and curb space, address the rising cost housing, prepare for more electric and autonomous vehicles, and work to strengthen resilience amid the effects of climate change.

2023 will bring additional federal funding to improve transportation and further momentum around trends like electric bike and car adoption, office-to-housing conversions and more.

Smart Cities Dive asked readers to share how they think cities will evolve in 2023. Here’s a selection of responses we received: 

The following responses have been edited for clarity and length.

The curb management market will continue to grow

“As we emerge from the pandemic, the new uses of the curb — restaurant seating, increased food and package delivery — have been in increasing conflict with the return of vehicle traffic, driven by both commuters and returning retail and entertainment consumers.

Cities continue to experiment with a variety of solutions, but there is a growing trend toward establishing paid loading zones to be used by traditional commercial delivery vehicles as well as the new influx of Amazon trucks, Door Dash deliveries and ride-hailing vehicles.

While the increase in revenue to the city from these loading zones is an important contributor to recovering tax revenue lost during [the COVID-19 pandemic], an even larger benefit is the much deeper understanding a city gains of who is using their streets, when and for what purpose.  This detailed usage data then enables the municipality to further refine its regulations to further optimize traffic flow and permitting.

Companies including Automotus, Meter Feeder, Populus, Coord and Umojo are capitalizing on this trend as cities including Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Boston and Aspen and Denver, Colorado, explore their potential.”

— Andrew Bess, managing director, TrueNorth Capital Partners

Cities will prioritize smart transportation initiatives

“A major motivator for local government leaders in 2023 will be the push for smart cities to enhance [the] quality of life for constituents and economic vibrancy. To achieve this goal, leaders will be focused on improving transportation and aligning those advancements with their digital transformation journey.

Access to safe transportation is increasingly becoming a vital part of achieving that vision and setting the standard for secure, connected and resilient communities where people live, work and serve. Smart transportation can do more than just help citizens get to where they are going. In addition to [providing] significant cost and energy benefits, it can help create more inclusive communities that offer equal opportunities to citizens.

Local governments certainly recognize the need for more efficient transportation but have faced barriers in implementing better infrastructure with financing and shifting priorities. This trend has started to change in the past year, and as we move into 2023, municipalities will continue to see more success in achieving smart transportation goals.

New [legislation], including the [bipartisan infrastructure law], passed over the last year has provided local governments billions in financing for a host of smart city objectives, including the creation of [electric vehicle] charging networks and modernized decarbonized bus fleets to help make transportation goals a reality. Municipalities can start by conducting an audit of their current transportation systems to identify which elements they should prioritize.”

— Lisa Brown, local government vertical market director, Johnson Controls

Digital twins will facilitate greater connectivity within smart cities

“Connectivity will continue to be of essential importance. Not only must individual vehicles, processes, utilities, etc., be connected, but everything that can be connected should and will be connected.

How to get there? Digital twins, a virtual representation of an ‘object’ — which may be as big as a city — act as a bridge between physical and digital assets. They give a real-time view of all the variables operating in the field. By using a digital twin, you can analyze all the data and systems that are involved in implementing any new ideas before they go live. Tools like advanced data analytics and machine learning (ML) can cut engineering hours by up to 70%.

Use cases include air quality monitoring, asset tracking and logistics monitoring, structural health monitoring, water metering, street lighting, smart parking, waste management, water storage tank monitoring, and swimming pool monitoring. Cities are like big companies. Eventually, as they become truly connected, they will unleash their superpowers by focusing on creating a completely new environment that deploys new methodologies and ways of living, working and relaxing.”

— Bernd Gross, chief technology officer, Software AG

Shared vehicle market momentum will persist

“In 2023, the shared vehicle market will continue to grow, and we will see new technologies designed to better support vehicle sharing. Ten years ago, few believed that consumers would be willing to give up their cars. Yet the global car-sharing market exceeded $8 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow 8% annually until 2026. The shared vehicle trend will get a lot more attention in 2023.”

— Steve Lalla, executive vice president, Verra Mobility

State and local governments will adopt more digital services 

“As the public sector increasingly adopts digital transformation, I expect customer experience to continue to lead government initiatives and legislative efforts in 2023. Ensuring the citizens are at the heart of processes, policy and technology will be critical for government at all levels.

Over the past three years, we’ve seen a growing call for government transparency leading to an increased demand for everything from public records to police camera footage.

Citizen-centric digital transformation is resonating with some of the highest-ranking officials in government, too. In 2021, Biden administration initiatives like the President’s Management Agenda and the Executive Order on Transforming Federal Customer Experience and Service Delivery to Rebuild Trust in Government called for increased transparency, accessibility and user-friendly digital platforms and resources for citizens.

The continued call for federal agencies to modernize and meet citizens’ expectations of digital engagement will persist through 2023 with an emphasis on equitable access. And, I think we’ll see state and local governments lead in this aspect and help provide a blueprint for others.”

— Mark Hynes, CEO, Granicus

Charger infrastructure siting will determine the future of EV adoption

“EV charger infrastructure deployment should accelerate in the next year as states start deploying federal funds and private-sector businesses ramp up installations. But the quantity of EV chargers needed to bend the adoption curve is enormous and unlikely to be satisfied by federal spending alone.

This means state and local agencies will need to be laser-focused on prioritizing EV charger siting based on more than any rudimentary assessment of where vehicles travel most frequently to ensure they're maximizing impact. Agencies will need to look at existing demand, trip intent and length, and also, critically, equity considerations. Unless all these considerations are in focus as planning gets underway, the EV revolution could stall out before it's begun.”

— Emily Adler, director of content, StreetLight Data

Collaborative, data-driven decisions will make cities more resilient

“In 2023, collaborative governance and regionalism will take on new importance for cities and the technologies they rely on to deliver the promises of the [bipartisan infrastructure law]. As an influx of funding meets ongoing staffing constraints, these collaborative efforts — among cities, counties, [metropolitan planning organizations], states, and the private sector — will require shared data tools that allow public agencies to coordinate and work from a common set of information across agencies and keep communities apprised of their progress. 

Modeling disaggregated data, in particular, will prove invaluable for its ability to deliver privacy-safe, granular and higher-quality data at scale, including race and equity analyses as required by many [infrastructure law-funded] programs. Modeling will also help cities and regions forecast what the future looks like based on population changes and other evolving ‘new normal’ factors. In 2023, we’ll look beyond only cities to deliver bold, community-driven infrastructure solutions. Collaborative, data-driven efforts will make cities, communities, and regions more resilient.”

— Kiran Jain, chief legal and policy officer, Replica

Real-world data will encourage further fleet EV adoption

“Fleets are actively planning their EV transition today, with many receiving their first vehicles in 2023. This will give fleet leaders invaluable experience in planning, deploying, and managing an electric fleet.

Getting more EVs on the road is good for sustainability, but it will also provide valuable data that other leaders can use to make their own EV deployments more effective. Leaders will have access to real-world insights that they can use to shape their EV adoption road maps and have a true impact on their bottom lines. Backed by data, first-movers will give more companies around the world the confidence to make the shift to EVs.”

— Philip van der Wilt, vice president of Europe, Middle East and Africa, Samsara  

Cities will use office-to-residential conversions to revitalize business districts

“The last couple of years has devastated an already declining urban office market. COVID sent workers home, and they aren't coming back. This not only hurt real estate developers, but also local governments with the loss of tax revenue and vibrancy that came from the businesses — restaurants, convenience stores and hotels — that went into supporting those workers and businesses. Without workers, these areas have become ghost towns. We are at an unprecedented time when an empty building is not worth much more than the land it is built on. Add on to that a housing shortage and skyrocketing rents and home sales, and you have a situation ripe for disruption.

More and more, cities are looking to office-to-residential conversions to bring life back to those buildings. In Washington, D.C., alone, nearly 4 million square feet of space are being converted or under evaluation. While it is not an instant fix, these areas will benefit from the rise of construction workers as a bridge to when new residents move in and bring in renewed vibrancy to these communities.”

— Michael O'Brien, managing principal, MOB Advocacy

Smart cities will plan for e-bikes

“Bikes Make Life Better sees e-bikes as being an increasingly viable replacement for [single-occupancy vehicles]. Unfortunately, the promise of e-bikes is being threatened by concerns about speed, public parking/charging spaces and battery fires — ‘growing pains.’ We believe that smart cities in 2023 will be planning for e-bikes across infrastructure and policies, including bikeways with varying speed requirements, safe and adequate public parking, and stricter battery requirements, especially in buildings.”

— Petrice Espinosa, director, Bikes Make Life Better

Assistive AI will help city agencies and departments collaborate

“2023 will see a greater emphasis on collaboration across city agencies and departments with the help of assistive [artificial intelligence]. Today, many organizations operate in silos, without access to data or the ability to act on it. Others are overwhelmed with data from [Internet of Things] devices, operational systems and social media. Assistive AI helps to break down those silos and make sense of the noise. Taking this approach to smart city planning and operations results in a more collaborative, connected and communicative approach to creating smarter, safer cities in the future.”

— Kalyn Sims, chief technology officer, safety, infrastructure and geospatial division, Hexagon

AI-enabled autonomous transportation will take off — if cities invest in smart infrastructure 

“I predict that 2023 will be the year we start seeing a lot more real-world tests and implementations of AI-enabled autonomous transportation around the world, specifically with use cases in logistics, delivery vehicles and Uber-like services. To make this a true possibility though, cities across the globe will need to make thoughtful investments into smart infrastructure.”
 
— David Ly, CEO and founder, Iveda

Cities will reimagine traditional office buildings

"We’ll see a rise in microcities as developers and building managers are beginning to re-imagine the potential of the ‘traditional’ office building. For instance, in Chicago, the Willis Tower has been redesigned to include public amenities such as restaurants and event spaces; in Manhattan, former office building 55 Broad Street is being redeveloped into nearly 600 apartments to aid in the nationwide housing crisis. With these changes, there is a need for more intelligent building management systems that not only create bespoke environments for building occupants but also can automatically make adjustments to building energy utilization during periods of peak demand. As extreme weather events and demands for power continue to increase, the value of these systems will continue to grow."

— Dan Hollenkamp, chief operating officer, Toggled

Riders are returning to public transportation, but they’re returning too slowly for some transit agencies that rely heavily on fare revenue to meet operating expenses. That could result in fare hikes, service cuts or both, making 2023 a year of tough decisions for agency managers.

Stimulus funds kept transit running during the height of the pandemic, and some agencies still have a portion of those funds in hand. But this month, S&P Global Ratings downgraded its view of the public transit sector from stable to negative. "Some public transit operators face an operating fund fiscal cliff — especially if they are unable to identify new revenue sources or right-size operations reflecting lower expected ridership levels — once the federal assistance aid now compensating for diminished passenger fare revenues is depleted," according to the S&P report. 

Nationally, ridership has recovered to just 70% of pre-COVID levels, on average, according to the American Public Transportation Association. S&P Global Ratings expects ridership to only return to between 80% and 85% of 2019 levels by 2026, and it notes that nationwide transit ridership was in decline prior to the pandemic. The credit rating agency blames remote work arrangements along with concerns about safety, reliability and levels of service. 

In major cities across the country, ridership remains depressed. On a typical weekday in January 2023, San Francisco’s Bay Area Rapid Transit is running at less than 40% of its weekday ridership in May 2020. In Greater Boston, the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority reports reaching 59% of average weekday ridership in November 2022 compared with that month in 2019. The Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, and Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority are all trying to regain transit riders. 

Commuter rail lines are especially struggling. Chicago’s Metra is seeing half the riders it once had. Caltrain, which serves Silicon Valley; Virginia Railway Express; and Southern California’s Metrolink are all down more than 60%, according to data compiled by APTA.

The nation’s largest transit agency, the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority, has factored a 5.5% fare and toll hike into this year’s budget and warned that without additional federal, state or city funds, “service cuts, staffing reductions, higher fare increases, cancellation of capital projects, and/or the faster spend-down of remaining funds” will be necessary to balance the budget, the agency said in a Dec. 21, 2022, press release.

Likewise, the Chicago transit system projects a $730 million budget gap by 2026. Leanne Redden, executive director of the Regional Transportation Authority of Northern Illinois, acknowledged in December that ridership is unlikely to return to 2019 levels. The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority has proposed a fare increase for its riders. 

Not all agencies are equal, however. In early January, APTA data showed Seattle’s Sound Transit, the Southwest Ohio Regional Transit Authority, Utah Transit Authority, and Cleveland’s METRO Regional Transit Authority are all near or above pre-pandemic ridership.

Agencies like Dallas Area Rapid Transit that rely less on fares are less affected by poor ridership. Although total ridership was off 39% in 2022 compared with 2019, the agency’s CEO, Nadine Lee, said in a November interview that “DART is not struggling financially.”

But transit agencies across the country have other concerns as well. Labor shortages are reflected in the signing bonuses they offer bus operators. Many agencies are looking toward major investments to electrify their bus fleets. And new approaches to better serve their communities have some agencies redesigning bus networks and trying alternative fare strategies, including fare capping, discounted fares and eliminating fares.

Transit is essential for many communities, said Alex Rosander, program associate at the Shared-Use Mobility Center, in a phone interview. “You could say that mobility is a right, and we should start treating it as so.”

Zero fare public transport programs, like the one that Kansas City started citywide in 2020, were aimed at increasing ridership and improving access for low-income communities. When COVID-19 arrived, other cities saw rear-door boarding for buses as a way to reduce the driver’s interaction with passengers, speed up bus stops and address inequities for transit-dependent riders.

Happy fare free bus day from the Route 29. Excited to be here for the start of this two-year pilot on three key routes in Boston. pic.twitter.com/aW1kMgxyEZ

— Jascha Franklin-Hodge (@jfh) March 1, 2022

As soon as Boston Mayor Michelle Wu took office in January 2021, she asked the City Council for $8 million to eliminate fares on three bus lines in the city. A pilot program on one line, Route 28, which overwhelmingly serves riders from low-income households, older adults and those with a disability, went into effect in August of that year. A report issued in March 2022 found that ridership increased 38%, bringing it back to near-2019 levels. That month, zero fares took effect for at least two years on the three lines Wu requested.

There can be other benefits to zero fare public transport as well. Candace Brakewood, an associate professor at the department of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville, said in an interview that fare boxes and fare gates are costly and require staff to maintain the equipment and securely retrieve cash payments daily.

On the other hand, with zero fare public transport, “anybody can be using the service, even if they don't actually need to get somewhere, and that could actually detract from other riders who would no longer feel comfortable on the service,” said Kari Watkins, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California, Davis, in an interview.

As the homeless population has grown in many major cities, transit user complaints often focus on people experiencing homelessness who take shelter in the transit system. In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams — a former captain in the New York Police Department — turned to law enforcement and a policy of removing people who have a mental illness from the transit system. Other agencies, like SEPTA and LA Metro, have added outreach teams to assist homeless people with access to shelters and other services.

Consistent, respectful enforcement is essential to addressing the use of transit as shelter, according to a 2016 report from the Transit Cooperative Research Program, but “enforcement alone does not work,” the report concluded. Based on a survey of 55 transit agencies, the report found that partnering with social service and nonprofit agencies is essential and that intake centers onsite at transit stations could be “very effective in persuading individuals who are homeless to seek and accept help.” But the report also warned that the problem of homelessness is beyond the ability of a transit agency to solve. 

Cities across the country have also experienced increases in crime in public transportation vehicles and facilities. According to a recent study by the Mineta Transportation Institute, the U.S. leads in the number of criminal attacks on public transit among a group of economically advanced countries. New York City subway crime soared 30% last year, according to media reports. Cities and transit agencies have responded with both enforcement and social assistance strategies. 

While agencies wrestle with homelessness, crime, equity, labor shortages and stubbornly low ridership, they still need to find a way to pay the bills while continuing to serve their communities.

In Chicago, RTA’s Redden sees the need for greater public funding. In New York, MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber is pleading with federal, state and city governments to cough up more money to avoid fare hikes and service cuts. The MTA is also working through the process of getting traffic congestion pricing approved, which will help fund the agency’s capital projects.

Data compiled by the Eno Center for Transportation identified 16 transit agencies that relied on fares to cover more than 40% of their operating expenses in 2019. Eno concluded that agencies and policymakers “will need to be creative” to find additional revenue sources and attract new kinds of riders. 

“At some point, there has to be something that's going to fill in that gap if the ridership is not back to what it once was,” Watkins said. “And the hard part about substantial service cuts is that's the No. 1 predictor of [lower] ridership. It's this negative spiral that they don't want to get stuck in.”

For much of its recent history in mitigating climate change, Denver has concentrated on buildings’ operational energy — the energy needed to run basics like heating, air conditioning, lighting and hot water.

That will shift in May when Denver’s newly adopted green code takes effect, said Christy Collins, green communities specialist with the local government. The code will also consider the greenhouse gas emissions created during the construction of a building and the manufacturing of its materials. It will set limits for carbon dioxide equivalent in the manufacturing of concrete and steel for commercial and multifamily developments.

“Embodied carbon is sometimes much more than half of the carbon impact of a given building, as opposed to operational energy,” Collins said. Commercial projects in Denver must choose about 10% of the green code to follow to comply with local law. Along with provisions on water use and residential energy are the embodied carbon amendments on concrete and steel.

Across the U.S., local and state action around embodied carbon, electrification of buildings and other decarbonization efforts is likely to grow in 2023, experts say.

“More folks are realizing both the carbon emissions impact of their buildings and appliances,” said Denise Grab, principal on nonprofit RMI’s carbon-free building team. “I expect we'll see many more cities, counties [and states] over the next year really moving toward electrification, low embodied-carbon buildings and other forward-looking policies.”

It’s important to look at how states will use clean energy funding from the Inflation Reduction Act to advance building decarbonization measures, said Frankie Downy, London-based technical lead for energy and buildings at C40 Cities, a global network of mayors united for climate action.

Downy said U.S. cities have been passing performance standards that put a cap on building emissions or energy use. The Inflation Reduction Act should instill further confidence that cities can pass policies in this vein, she said. The law’s provisions include $1 billion in grant money to help states adopt new residential and commercial building energy codes.

Some local governments have already focused on embodied carbon policies. Portland, Oregon’s low-carbon concrete ordinance took effect in January, and New York City’s mayor announced a clean construction executive order last fall addressing procurement of cement, steel and machinery. Looking at machinery is a novel move in the U.S., said Cécile Faraud, London-based technical lead for clean construction at C40, and she expects cities and states will pass more such provisions.

Governments should concentrate more on existing buildings than on new construction, Faraud said. “When cities are prioritizing their existing stock and working more on retrofits, they remove the need for virgin materials in the first place. So it's the best way to reduce embodied carbon.”

Yet new construction tends to be an attractive starting point because it can often be simpler to build something new rather than retrofit, Grab said.

“Most of the codes so far have focused on new construction,” she said. “But I do expect over the next year we'll see more focus on policies like building performance standards, like existing building codes that are starting to look more at existing buildings.”

Another trend is policies designed for a more circular economy, namely salvaging materials and deconstructing buildings to recover materials rather than demolishing them. Portland, Oregon, and Austin, Texas, are some of the cities leading in this area, Faraud said.

In the U.S., embodied carbon policy usually emphasizes cement, concrete and steel, Faraud said. Denver began its own efforts with concrete and steel because their production processes emit large amounts of carbon relative to other building materials. Steel production, for example, is responsible for 6.6% of human-made greenhouse gas emissions globally.

“As we talk about how to develop responsibly, we need density,” Collins said. “But with density comes high-rises. With high-rises come concrete and steel. Concrete and steel are both very impactful materials from an embodied carbon standpoint, so it just makes sense to start talking about them.”

Faraud said there’s an opportunity for the U.S. to use more timber for construction. In addition to timber, Grab said she expects more construction projects to use materials such as straw, hemp and carbon-sequestering concrete.

In Denver, the city and county will spend the next few years receiving feedback from developers on different provisions in the green code, including those related to embodied carbon, Collins said. The plan is to eventually make policies like this required rather than optional.

“We are bringing these topics forward through the Denver green code to give the development community an opportunity to see that these unfamiliar things are priorities in the Denver community,” she said. “We want to be able to move requirements into mandatory regulations as quickly as we can without causing duress.”

The micromobility space confronted both opportunities and obstacles in 2022. While ridership grew, a number of shared micromobility providers faced economic challenges that shook up the industry. The coming year could see those issues escalate, even if micromobility proves to be the future of urban transportation, according to researchers and transportation professionals.

Indeed, the federal government recognizes micromobility’s role in the transition to a clean energy future. Earlier this month, the Biden administration released a blueprint for transportation decarbonization that names investment in micromobility as a critical policy.

In 2023, “we’re going to see a huge increase in micromobility ownership and usage, which includes subscriptions and shared [services],” said Wei Fan, director of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte’s Center for Advanced Multimodal Mobility Solutions and Education. Fan credits the semiconductor shortage, rising energy prices and growing eco-consciousness as forces behind the shift. But cities must address accessibility and infrastructure concerns to ensure micromobility’s success, researchers and transportation professionals said. 

Electrification will continue to expand

Over the past few years, electric bike purchases have soared. David King, associate professor of urban planning at Arizona State University, said that local and state incentives could spur more e-bike sales in the U.S., especially if e-bike prices continue to rise. He pointed to Denver’s e-bike rebate program, which allows residents to save up to $1,200 on an e-bike purchase. King said he “expect[s] more cities to follow suit.”

The electrification trend matters for shared micromobility, too, said Samantha Herr, executive director of the North American Bikeshare & Scootershare Association. As cities increasingly build out electric vehicle charging infrastructure, officials should include infrastructure for micromobility as part of these projects, she said.

Will shared micromobility companies continue to struggle?

Last year, shared micromobility companies faced a flurry of trials, but it’s unclear if those issues will persist since much of it is beyond their control. Micromobility executives have blamed recession fears, inflation, a lack of venture capital funding, and regulatory challenges for 2022’s troubles.

“The era of free or cheap money — is probably at an end,” King said. Consequently, companies will prioritize profitability and shrink their footprints, he said.

But even if shared micromobility operators leave a city, “there’s now a well-known and obvious substitute for these services—which is you go buy your own scooter or electric bike,” King said.

However, shared micromobility ridership will increase in 2023, Herr said. “I am sure of that,” she added. Shared micromobility ridership rose between 2020 and 2021 and likely increased in 2022, Herr said. But nationwide data is not available yet.

According to Herr, the issues seen in 2022 may continue into 2023, but shared micromobility is “still a pretty young industry,” and therefore, “you’re going to have flux and change…as the industry adjusts and matures.”

To alleviate some of these growing pains, many cities are moving toward creating “more stable environments” for both micromobility providers and city residents,” said Alex Engel, senior communications manager at the National Association of City Transportation Officials. For instance, cities may only allow a few providers to operate instead of allowing a “free for all” of dockless vehicles or focus more on public-private partnerships like many bikeshare services, Engel said. 

Cities will confront questions about accessibility

Partly because shared micromobility providers focus on profitability, the past few years have seen a rapid increase in trip prices. According to a report by NACTO, shared scooter and e-bike trip prices have more than doubled since 2018.

“One thing we’re looking to see in the year ahead is how cities manage some of these pressures,” Engel said. Some shared micromobility trips have actually become more expensive than a comparable trip taken in a shared vehicle like Uber or Lyft, he added. Higher prices could push riders away from shared micromobility, especially the poorest riders, who use shared micromobility less than the public as a whole. According to the report, prices have increased the most in cities that do not regulate shared micromobility.

City leaders should prioritize safe infrastructure

Researchers and transportation professionals emphasize that safe infrastructure is crucial for micromobility’s future. Safe infrastructure means “actually creating safe spaces on the roads for people to ride,” Herr said. King agreed, noting that “you’re not going to see sustained growth in usage unless [cities] dramatically improve the infrastructure.”

Fan is confident that local governments will improve micromobility infrastructure. “Cities are going to shift from car-dominated mindsets,” he said, reallocating roads and parking spaces to support infrastructure like protected bike lanes.

King, however, doesn’t expect broad national trends in micromobility adoption. He said some places, like college campuses, will excel, while others will face more challenges. “Even sustained investment in safe infrastructure,” King said, “is not going to be enough to get suburban drivers out of their cars necessarily.”